Probability theory forms the mathematical backbone for quantifying uncertainty and random events, providing a rigorous language with which to describe both everyday phenomena and complex scientific ...

“One of the basic axioms of the rational theory of decision under uncertainty is Savage’s (1954) sure-thing principle (STP). It states that if prospect x is preferred to y knowing that Event A ...

Probability theory has long provided a rigorous framework for quantifying uncertainty, yet its extension to infinite sets introduces profound conceptual challenges and opportunities. Contemporary ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . Publisher Information The purpose of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS) is to foster the development and dissemination of the theory and ...

Source: Thunder Bay, Canada. Used with permission of Dan Hunt, MD. Coincidences attract our attention because they seem weird, odd, or unlikely. Their improbability stimulates wonder—“what are the ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . Abstract Consider a class of nonstationary time series with the form Yt = μt + ξt where {ξt} is a sequence of infinite moving averages of independent ...

Roth, A. E., and F. Schoumaker. "Subjective Probability and the Theory of Games: Some Further Comment." Management Science 29, no. 11 (November 1983): 1337–1340.

The outrage of the moment in my social media circles is over the New York Times hiring Bret Stephens as an opinion columnist, who promptly devoted his first regular column to sowing doubt about ...